Stock Take
The 2024 news cycle has typically been dominated by the likes of the US and UK elections, or conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East. However, the year looks to be ending with a focus on developments in France and South Korea.
Starting in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned on Wednesday last week, after losing a vote of no confidence.
The French Parliament is currently divided between President Macron’s centrist party, a left-wing alliance and the right-wing National Rally. Barnier was attempting to navigate this complex situation to pass next year’s budget however, ultimately, was unable to find a solution that satisfied two out of the three groups.
His resignation leaves Macron with something of a dilemma. As President, he gets to name the next Prime Minister, but the candidate will need to be acceptable to Parliament or will likely suffer similar issues to Barnier. Macron is not allowed to call another election until mid-2025, meaning whoever succeeds Barnier will face the same problem until at least then. Despite this, on Friday Macron said he would appoint the new President in the coming days.
Writing the day after Barnier’s resignation, Felipe Villaroel, Partner at TwentyFour Asset Management, noted there was contrast between the political turbulence and relative calm reaction from financial markets in the immediate aftermath.
Villaroel reasons: “As opposed to previous problematic episodes in the Eurozone, there is no imminent threat of a ‘Frexit’.” He adds: “A US-style government shutdown scenario is not on the cards; if there is no support for a new budget, then a version of 2024’s would apply next year. This means the French government can continue receiving taxes, spending monies and most importantly paying bond coupons. Therefore, from a markets perspective the worst-case scenario here is far less damaging than previous examples of government budget stand-offs.”
The Euronext France CAC 40 index actually rose 2.78% last week, with the market performing better in the second half of the week.
The second major political situation last week was the fallout from South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law on the country. The attempt failed, as the country’s National Assembly voted it down, however, the ultimate nature of the political fallout is still unclear. An attempt to impeach Yoon failed last week, after his Party refused to back the motion. That said, calls for his resignation continue, and he has now been placed under an international travel ban.
In response to the political uncertainty, the Korea Stock Exchange fell 1.13%, in local currency.
Staying in Asia, the tit-for-tat trade war between China and the US continued to expand last week, with the Chinese government placing restrictions on several rare earth mineral exports to the US. These are used in the manufacture of a range of technologies, including semiconductors.
Commenting on these recent developments, Martin Hennecke, Head of Asia & Middle East Investment Advisory at St. James’s Place said: “Events like the political turmoil in South Korea or the rare earth export restrictions applied by China in response to new semiconductor export restrictions by the US are hard to predict. It can serve as a good reminder of the importance of the three factors of diversification. Avoiding short term speculation as well as avoiding leverage coupled with overconfidence on specific predictions.”
The Chinese export news wasn’t enough to stop the S&P 500 hitting record highs at the end of last week, as jobs data released on Friday fuelled hope of another interest rate cut.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 ended relatively flat last week. This was despite Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey telling the Financial Times that he expected four cuts to interest rates next year, and house prices hitting a record high at the end of last week.
Wealth Check
Gifting cash or gifting assets is a present that keeps on giving. It’s practical, thoughtful – and it can make so many things possible. A cash gift could pay for a family holiday, cover extra days at nursery for a new grandchild, or it could start a savings pot that will make a dream come true.
And cash gifts aren’t your only option. There are many tax-smart ways to gift to your family – any of which could save you a significant amount of tax.
Here are just some of your options:
Making a Christmas cash gift
Gifting cash could be a welcome boost to those you love, and the effect can last longer than you think. Gifting is now an even more powerful way to mitigate your Inheritance Tax liability too. You can give away up to £3,000 a year, as well as making any number of small gifts of up to £250, which reduces the size of your estate, and therefore your IHT liability.
Giving a Junior ISA for Christmas
Like all ISAs, Junior ISAs (JISAs) are tax-efficient, and a great opportunity to get children into the habit of savvy saving. As their parent or legal guardian, you can open a JISA for any child under 18 who’s living in the UK (there are some exemptions for children living outside of the UK). And once opened, anyone can contribute – so you could be starting a new Christmas tradition!
Starting a child’s pension
Realistically, if you’re eight years old, a child’s pension is not going to be up there on the Christmas list alongside the latest games console or lego set . But as a parent or guardian, thinking ahead and starting a pension on their behalf is a thoughtful long-term gift that sends all the right messages about putting extra money aside, and saving regularly.
Whatever path we choose in life, money will be part of making it happen.
So, start giving, and have a very merry, tax-savvy Christmas! Need help getting your head around gifting and tax? We’re here to help – get in touch today.
The value of an investment with St. James’s Place will be directly linked to the performance of the funds selected and may fall as well as rise. You may get back less than the amount invested.
The levels and bases of taxation and reliefs from taxation can change at any time. Tax relief is generally dependent on individual circumstances.
In The Picture
Both South Korea and France are facing political challenges. Even before this, both countries have struggled this year.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Please note it is not possible to invest directly into a financial index and the figures shown do not take into account any charges applicable to the appropriate investment wrapper or any relevant tax charges.
The Last Word
“The developments in Syria in recent hours and days are unprecedented, and we are speaking to our partners in the region and monitoring the situation closely.”
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer comments on the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.
SJP Approved 09/12/2024