Stock Take
Both the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs, and posted 1.1% and 1.2% increases over the five days.
This came despite US inflation coming in above expectations at 2.4%, narrowly beating the forecasts of 2.3% for September. That said, it still represented a slight drop on the 2.5% figure recorded in August.
Of arguably more concern was an increase in core inflation, which doesn’t include volatile food and energy prices. This had sat at 3.2% since July but increased to 3.3% in September.
Commenting on these figures, Justin Onuekwusi, Chief Investment Officer at St. James’s Place noted: “The data coming out of the US is mixed, and I expect it to stay that way for the next few months. CPI is currently higher than expected, and what concerns me isn’t the headline number, but the core inflation. Core inflation suggests that prices will remain elevated for longer, which could challenge the Fed’s ability to bring it down . However, the elements driving the ‘higher for longer’ narrative are the most volatile, like insurance costs, which spiked in August but have since come down. While we are on a deflationary trend, the final push to get inflation back to target may be the hardest part.”
Market performance was less positive in the UK, where low GDP numbers for August, and general trepidation around the upcoming budget weakened confidence.
On Friday, data released by the Office for National Statistics showed the UK economy grew by just 0.2% in August. This follows two months with no growth.
Analysing the figures, Hetal Mehta, Head of Economic Research at St. James’s Place said: “The monthly GDP numbers for August were in line with expectations but some downward revisions to the historical data suggest the third quarter will most likely end up being a bit weaker than originally anticipated. The Bank of England was assuming 0.3% GDP growth at the time of its September meeting.
“Slowdowns in these last few months of the year are not a big surprise to us; growth in the first half of the year was unsustainably strong. Business sentiment is holding up for now but uncertainty around the Budget leave the growth outlook uncertain.”
There was more positive sentiment in the EU, as the MSCI Europe ex. UK Index increased 1% in local currency over the week.
This was despite several countries in Europe also struggling for economic growth. Last week, the German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said he expected the German economy to shrink in 2024, for example.
In view of this, some of the positivity in markets could be explained by a growing sense that the European Central Bank could accelerate its interest rate cutting plans to bolster growth.
Finally, turning to Asia, the Chinese Shanghai Composite fell 3.6% on waning optimism around the recent stimulus announcements. Ever since the government announced plans for a huge financial stimulus package, markets have been volatile, as investors try to anticipate exactly what it will looks like, and what it will means for the country.
However, according to Martin Hennecke, Head of Asia & Middle East Investment Advisory & Communications at St. James’s Place, this misses the wider investment picture. He says: “It appears that a lot of investors are fixated on, if not panicked about, the question of exactly how much stimulus is being rolled out and when. Most are missing the wider picture that even the lowest projection of 2024 GDP prior to the stimulus announcements was 4.6%. This compares favourably with most other major economies, such as Germany, which is now projected to go slightly backwards for the second year in a row.”
Wealth Check
A major life event or milestone – such as marriage, home ownership or change in employment status – is the main reason why people seek financial advice, according to the second chapter of the Real Life Advice Report, St. James’s Place’s largest consumer survey to date. These moments and milestones – some predictable, others not – are collectively the biggest trigger for people to seek financial advice.
According to the results, there are three key, age-specific life stages when considering the advice journey: the 18–34s, 35–55s and the over 55s, who each have a different expectation and relationship with financial advice. Of these, the 18–34-year-olds appear to face the greatest level of financial complexity, but are more proactive in seeking financial advice to help them manage their finances than the other generations.
Alexandra Loydon, SJP’s Director Partner Engagement and Consultancy, says the Report underlines the ongoing value of financial advice. “Big life events and milestones make people stop, assess and plan, and often they prompt people to undertake some financial planning too. While it’s clear that one of the greatest benefits of financial advice is the support it can offer in times of change or stress, the key to navigating those moments is putting a strong financial plan in place ahead of time, to ensure their money works as hard for them as possible, no matter what their circumstances are.
“Seeking advice to do so not only boosts mental and emotional wellbeing, but provides the confidence to reach life’s goals and milestones in the first place.”
Our relationship with our money changes as we get older. Whatever the reason to start an advice journey, the Report makes clear that the type of advice you want, or that you need, depends on your age and life stage.
Those in their twenties or thirties are often prioritising building their career, buying a home or starting a family – along with all the financial decisions that come with those goals. It’s a time to lay strong financial foundations for the future. There can be big outgoings such as mortgages, raising and educating children, or launching a business.
As we age, other financial priorities come to the fore, such as planning for retirement, or leaving a legacy.
Source Opinium surveyed just under 12,000 UK adults nationwide in two polls between May and August 2024. Quotas and post-weighting were applied to the sample to make the dataset representative of the UK adult population. Quantitative data referenced in this chapter is sourced from the first poll, which had a total sample of 7,995 respondents. Survey included those aged 18-34 (1,940), 35-54 (2,654) and 55 and over (3,401).
In The Picture
What are our fund managers thinking for the coming year? Hear what Johanna Kyrklund from Schroders will be looking for.
The Last Word
“He took the SNP from the fringes of Scottish politics to the heart of government.”
Scotland’s first minister John Swinney on former head of the Scottish National Party and Scotland first minister, Alexander Salmond – who passed away over the weekend.
SJP Approved 14/10/2024