Stock Take
The British government received a small boost last Thursday after it was revealed the UK economy grew by 0.1% over the three months to December.
While this small level of growth would usually not be particularly exciting, it was notably ahead of expectations, which were for a 0.1% fall.
Growth was spurred by a 0.4% increase in GDP in December, largely thanks to improvements in the services sector.
Commenting on the figures, Hetal Mehta, Head of Economic Research at SJP, said: “Consumer spending was flat, and investment shrank. It is government spending that kept the economy going in the last three months of the year. The slightly better fourth-quarter growth won’t prevent the need for the Chancellor to make some difficult decisions in the coming months.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to give her Spring Statement towards the end of March. Although this was not meant to look like a budget, the recent poor economic performance means she may be forced to act.
Nevertheless, the unexpected GDP bump helped lift the FTSE by 0.4% over the week. The market was also boosted by developments in Ukraine, where US President Donald Trump is looking to achieve a quick peace.
Hopes of a peace deal also lifted wider European equities. German industrials, for example, have been notably affected by the high energy costs the war has brought. An end to the conflict could bring down gas prices, reducing costs for companies across the continent.
Peter McLoughlin, Head of DFM Research at SJP, said: “European markets are showing signs of stabilisation amid mounting optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. European equities were also supported by improved market sentiment. This was in turn bolstered by easing credit conditions and expectations that the recent euro weakness would moderate.
“Large company stocks continued to lead, while smaller companies are underperforming in the current environment. However, further easing in credit conditions could potentially reverse this trend.”
Despite the peace talks, European defence companies are also performing well. As US defence strategy shifts focus from Europe towards its own borders and Asia, European defence spending is expected to rise naturally.
Last week, the MSCI Europe ex UK ended up 2.2%. Year to date, European equities have performed strongly, with the index currently up over 10%. This means it has outperformed both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ so far in 2025.
In the US, it was revealed last week that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation surprisingly climbed to 3% in January. This is the highest level recorded in six months. Although inflation was generally high, one of the most striking price increases was in eggs, which jumped 15.2% over the month due to the impact of avian flu.
Testifying before Congress on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that while the central bank has made great strides in reducing inflation, more work remains. As a result, he suggested monetary policy would remain restrictive for the time being.
The prospect of US interest rates staying elevated for longer did little to dampen sentiment towards US equities. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose over the week, with both ending within 1.0% of their record highs.
It’s worth noting January’s inflation figures do not include the effect of any tariffs the President would bring in. Tariffs remained firmly in the news last week. Donald Trump reiterated plans for a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium, along with proposals for retaliatory tariffs. These are likely to add inflationary pressure to the US economy.
Turning to Asia, Chinese equities continued their strong start to 2025 with another week of growth. Overall, the Shanghai SE Composite Index is now up over 16% this year in local currency. This follows a weak 2024, when the index saw a double-digit decline.
Wealth Check
With more of us self-employed, running our own businesses or having portfolio careers, the need to take personal responsibility for our pensions has never been greater. Personal pensions are both portable and flexible, so whatever career path you follow, however many employers you have or businesses you launch, your pension can follow along too.
With so many pension options and investments choices, it’s easy to delay starting a pension until middle age. But the sooner you start, the more potential your investments have to grow before you finally decide to stop working.
With the help of a financial adviser, setting up a personal pension is straightforward and easy to do.
If you’re self-employed or non-working, your retirement planning is in your hands. Depending on National Insurance contributions, most people in the UK will receive a State Pension, but many want additional income and financial freedom in later life.
Pensions are a tax-efficient way to save for retirement. All personal pensions qualify for tax relief, meaning every eligible contribution gets an automatic 20% cash boost from the government – more if you’re a higher or additional rate taxpayer. When you come to retire, you can usually take up to 25% tax-free, up to a maximum value of £268,275. Any tax relief over the basic rate is claimed via your annual tax return.
Most people save into a pension every month. It can feel counterintuitive to start saving for old age when you’re still in your 30s, especially when money is tight, but the golden rule is ‘a little and often’ – and start early.
It’s a good idea to increase your contributions if you get a pay rise or adjust them to keep in line with inflation.
You can normally access a personal pension when you turn 55, though this will increase to 57 from 6 April 2028. When it comes to withdrawing your pension, you have plenty of options – you could take a lump sum, a series of lump sums, or draw a regular income.
Great retirements don’t happen by accident. Setting up a personal pension is one of the smartest financial moves you can make.
The value of an investment with St. James’s Place will be directly linked to the performance of the funds selected and may fall as well as rise. You may get back less than the amount invested.
The levels and bases of taxation, and reliefs from taxation, can change at any time. The value of any tax relief depends on individual circumstances.
In The Picture
When tariffs rise, trade balances shift – and markets take notice.
President Trump has announced a wide number of tariffs.
The chart below shows the United States’ trade balance with key global partners. Countries like China, where the US imports more than it exports, sit on the left side with nations like the Netherlands, where the US exports more than it imports, towards the right side.
Those countries on the left are more likely to be hit by tariffs, which could shift these trade balances. But why should that matter to investors?
Tariffs can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and potentially slow economic growth in certain regions or sectors. They can also lead to retaliation, further increasing market volatility.
As Hetal Mehta, our head of economic research, explains: “Trade imbalances and policies like tariffs can affect global markets, from currency movements to company profits. These are the kinds of shifts we monitor closely to help ensure our clients’ portfolios remain well-positioned in a changing global landscape.”
The value of a St. James’s Place investment will be directly linked to the performance of the funds you select and the value can, therefore, go down as well as up. You may get back less than you invested.
SJP Approved 17/02/2025